War-torn Myanmar Votes in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The ruling junta is conducting a staggered election nearly half a decade after it took control in a coup, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the polls under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a military representative stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "the path to democracy".